Going to try to make this as simple as possible! ( Will make another blog with more science behind it )
It's that time of year again for the Winter Outlook. Remember last Winter? On average, we got about 4" of wet, slushy snow. Snowfall seasonal totals were around 36". We forecasted above that thinking that we would be in the " jackpot " which was not the case. Most of the snow went into Ski country. We were in the battle zone flirting with a sea-breeze on the 495 belt.
Different story for this winter. You probably have heard of these 3! El Nino being the warm.
La Nina being the cold and then a Neutral pattern where neither is much of an impact. We are expecting a ENSO pattern this Winter. It sure will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Next up, a few headlines that we are going to be watching for this upcoming Winter.
1) Above average in snowfall
2) Above average in precip
3) Average temperatures
4) Return of the " Polar Vortex "
Let's start ...
What even is a " Polar Vortex " Well, this is a term that goes back to the 1800's! It basically is a whirling mass of cold air circulating in the mid- to upper-levels of the atmosphere which you typically see every Winter.
What typically happens in the Winter, the Polar Vortex weakens and pieces of it come off, which slide into our neck of the woods. Cold shots of air are likely this Winter so prepare for it!
Temperatures : We are expecting average temps for us here in the Merrimack Valley and most of the state. +1 Deg ( avg ) is what were thinking for the cape and islands. This does not always mean that you won't see snow or a lot of it. What it means is that the average overall temperature will be above average.
Slightly below average temps are likely for upstate NY where the most confidence is.
What about precip? overall, I think we will be slightly above average. Out to our West and into upstate NY is where we are expecting above average in precip. Another good thing if you like snow!
Next up! Snowfall Forecast : ( Sponsored by Pro-Turf Landscaping )
How much snow for this Winter? We are expecting above average in snowfall! 33-50% more than average for us here in the Merrimack Valley. Just West of Worcester, MA is where we are expecting the " Jackpot " to be. They could see anywhere from 80"+! Either way, it should be a good season for snowfall. As you can remember, last year we had around 36" for the season.
So if you did the math... We should end up with anywhere between 60-80" of snow for the city of Lowell. Our average is around 52" I'm thinking around 2-4 big storms. Nor'Easters and plenty of clipper systems with this type of setup. If you need to buy a shovel, make sure to head over to AG Hardware Supply in Lowell! Thank you for following the Merrimack Valley's Trusted Weather Source!
- Shawn Kelley CEO Mill City Weather